A Robust Approach for Forecasting and Planning Municipal Solid Waste Generation: A SARIMA Model

Abstract

Mission (SCM) the ambitious goal of the smart city mission in Varanasi- aimed at improving quality of life, sustainability and urban
efficiency which remain fundamentally unachievable without addressing the pervasive challenges in its municipal solid waste
management. Current SWM practices, marked by issues such as insufficient source segregation, reliance on open dumping, and
inadequate processing infrastructure (despite some progresses with door to door collection and the Karsada plant) present significant
environmental and public health risk that directly counteract the “smart” and “clean” city vision. Varanasi being one of India's oldest and
most densely populated cities, the municipal Solid Waste Management (MSW) system faces escalating challenges due to urbanization,
population growth and tourism, making accurate forecasting essential for sustainable planning. This study presents a robust monthly
MSW data from January 2020 to December 2024 collected from the Varanasi Nagar Nigam office. Using SARIMA (2,0,2) (1,0,0) [12],
the research captures seasonal and non-seasonal trends in waste generation and projects future trends for 2025–2027. The analysis
confirms that waste generation exhibits significant seasonality influenced by festivals and urban activities. Key findings suggest a
consistent increase in waste generation over time with peaks during festival seasons. The results of this forecasting can aid in policymaking, budgeting, and strategic planning for sustainable waste management in Varanasi. The study recommends incorporating
forecasting tools in municipal planning and highlights the importance of public participation and technological innovation in improving
urban waste systems.